Reasoning with Uncertainty
(2nd semester 2011/12)
Lecturer:
PD Dr. Reinhard Blutner
Lectures: Block A: Wednesday 1315, A1.06 (Science Park); Block B: Wednesday 1315, G3.13 (Science Park)
Office Hours: by appointment
Outline
Reasoning with uncertainty
and with probabilities is important for many fields of Artificial Intelligence,
especially for expert systems, robotics, and neuronal networks. The course
gives a representative overview of the various models and instruments that deal
with uncertainty and vagueness, such as Bayesian networks, certainty factors, DempsterShafer
theory, fuzzy logic, possibilistic logic, and quantum probabilities. The aim of
the course is to look both for practical applications and to provide a basis
that enables us to compare the different formalisms with each other.
Examinations
This course will be graded
based on
Obligatory Homework:
(Questions concerning the
homework can be asked at the beginning of the following lecture)
Hugin exercise:
20%
(Final deadline
for the Hugin exercise: April 4. Grade is
reduced if work is late: 1 per day!)
Test: 30%
(After the first 5
courses which are based on the Halpern book)
Final exam: 50%
Final mark and final exam
Course Material
Quantum Logic and
Probability Theory 
Hugin Exercises [pdffile] 
Here you can find the solution for the special homework
4.1.Word meanings and LSA: Perform a SVD for the course example ... [pdf]
Schedule
Week 
Content 
Slides 
Exercises 
P A R T 1 

1 
Representing Uncertainty 1 
ExercisesPart1: 1.3, 1.4, 1.6 

2 
No class on February 15 

3 
Representing Uncertainty 2 
ExercisesPart1: 1.7, 1.8, 1.10(ii)&(iii),
1.11


4 
Updating Beliefs 
ExercisesPart1: 2.3. 2.4, 2.5, 2.7 

5 
Bayesian
Networks 1 
ExercisesPart1: 3.1, 3.2, 3.3, 3.4 

6 
Bayesian Networks
2 / Explaining the Hugin Exercises 
ExercisesPart1: 3.5, 3.6, 3.7 

7 
Rationality: the Dutch Book argument
Test 
ExercisesPart2: 1.2,1.3
Writing the TEST: March 21. 

P A R T 2 

1 
Dempster Shafer Theory 1 & 2 
ExercisesPart2: 2.2, 2.3, 2.5, 2.6, 2.7 Deadline for Hugin exercise! 

2 
Fuzzy sets 1 
ExercisesPart2: 3.1 a&b, 3.3 c&d, 3.5


3 
Fuzzy sets 2 
ExercisesPart2: 3.8, 3.10, 3.11 c.  
4 
Quantum Probabilities 1 
ExercisesPart2: 4.1 a, 4.2, 4.3  
5 
No class on May 2nd 
ExercisesPart2: 4.4, 4.6, 4.7 

6 
Quantum Probabilities 1/2 

7 
Quanten Probabilities 2 

8 
Applications of quantum probabilities 

see a recent BBS target paper 


Note concerning the origin of Hugin
"During an EUsponsored research project (under the ESPRIT program) on diagnosing
neuromuscular diseases, the Bayesian network MUNIN was constructed. A research
group at
Related Websites
Websites for Quantum Cognition
and some
relevant articles and books:
Aerts, Diederik, Jan Broekaert & Liane
Gabora (2006). A case
for applying an abstracted quantum formalism to cognition. In
Aerts, Diederik, Marek Czachor &
Bart D’Hooghe (2005?). Do We Think and Communicate in
Atmanspacher, Harald, Hartmann Römer
& Harald Walach (2002a). Weak Quantum Theory: Complementarity and
Entanglement in Physics and Beyond. Foundations of Physics 32(3):
379406.
Gabora, Liane & Dederik Aerts
(2002). Contextalizing concepts using a mathematical generalization of the
quantum formalism. Journal of Experimental and Theoretical Artificial
Intelligence.
Jibu, Mari & Kunio Yasue (1995).
Quantum Brain Dynamics and Consciousness. Amsterdam/Philadelphia: John
Benjamins.
Lomonaco, Samuel J. Jr. (2000). A rosetta
stone for quantum mechanics with an introduction to quantum computation.
Vedral, Vlatko (2006). Introduction
to Quantum Information Science.
Widdows, Dominic & Stanley
Peters (2003). Word Vectors and Quantum Logic: Experiments with negation and
disjunction. Paper presented at the Eighth Mathematics of Language
Conference, Bloomington, Indiana.